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Sunday, January 23, 2022

Sinema’s schtick is wearing thin in Arizona

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Look at Sinema’s trendline in the two years she’s been in the Senate: 

She went from 41% favorable, 35% unfavorable at the start of February, to 29% favorable, 40% unfavorable—a dramatic overnight 17-point net drop. As you might imagine, her numbers among Democrats have dropped precipitously: 

That’s a +23 net favorability rating, down from +53. Now if you were to ask Sinema, she’d likely laugh this off. She thinks Arizona is a bunch of Republicans, hence no need to keep Democrats happy. But here’s her problem—her antics aren’t just pissing off Democrats. She’s also losing ground among Independents. 

She is now deeply underwater among independents, going from a +6 net favorable rating, to -20 today. As for Republicans? They never liked her and still don’t, she’s gone from 16% favorable, 57% unfavorable, to 15-53 today. No wonder her overall numbers have cratered to that extent! 

So how does freshman Sen. Mark Kelly compare? Note, he’s been a reliable Democratic vote, hasn’t caused any waves, isn’t creating any problems. Voted for the $15 minimum wage. So what does Arizona think of him? 

Woah, 48% approve, 41% disapprove. Remember, for Sinema, it’s 29-40. 

It’s even better among independents! 

Kelly is at 49-38 among independents, while Sinema is at 24-44. And this is after establishing a reliably liberal voting track record, including that fateful minimum wage hike. 

To summarize: 

Favorability Kyrsten Sinema Mark Kelly
Overall 29-40 48-41
Democrats 48-25 90-4
Independents 24-44 49-38
Republicans 15-53 7-80

Sinema appears oblivious to her state’s changes. We’re no longer talking about the Arizona that birthed the modern conservative movement. Rather, it’s the Arizona with rapidly growing and politically engaged Latino and American Indian communities, as well as shifting educated suburbs. 

About the only good news for Sinema is that she doesn’t face reelection for another four years. But at this current trajectory, her reelection is nowhere near assured, much less surviving what should be an inevitable primary. 


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